File :-(, x, )
NASA agreed, don't bother them Anonymous
"A German schoolboy, Nico Marquardt, has revised NASA's figures for the chances that the Apophis asteroid will hit earth. Apparently if the asteroid hits a satellite in 2029, its path could be diverted enough to cause it to collide with Earth on the next orbit, in 2036. NASA had calculated the chances as 1 in 45,000 but the 13-year-old, in his science project, made it 1 in 450. NASA agreed."
>> Anonymous
German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper

7 hours ago

BERLIN (AFP) — A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.

Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.

Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.

If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.

The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."
>> Anonymous
This is why we need to colonize Mars and get the fuck off this rock.
>> Anonymous
>>592890
>13 year old boy

Hey dipshit, would you like to know that they have better things to do such as masturbating. I still believe this kid a bit, but, stop believing what your reading. Listen, you can't let a 13 year old tell us how the world is going to end through an experiment. The kid is 13, now, if he had some kind of experience, I would trust him a bit, but, how do you think he is getting anywhere with experimenting with some basic acids and a cardboard box? Anything or anyone that says the world is going to end on this date gets a shitload of cash, anyways.
>> Anonymous
>>592927

Um.....yeah....his being 13 doesn't prevent him from knowing the laws of physics. What's your excuse? But ooh, our understanding of the universe is a no-no on /x/. It steps on make-believe with it's "reality."

Either way I don't buy it. Give links. This would have been on the blogosphere before it got here. I call bullshit. Apophis won't hit. Hell, by that time Richard Branson will probably have a plan to capture the asteroid (don't doomcry, the physics of capturing an asteroid are simple) and mine it for the trillions of dollars in ores it might have.
>> Anonymous
>>592892

>If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.

Confirmed 100% bullshit. There is literally no way that something
>weighing 200 billion tonnes
could have it's trajectory significantly effected by a 2-3 tonne satellite. It would change the trajectory by maybe a few millimeters. But not 36,000 miles.

OP is, like most OP's on /x/, completely and utterly full of shit.
>> Anonymous
ITT Mars has magical asteroid shields
>> ? ?? User Unknown? !.64NeWFaGs
>>592951
google my friend learn how 2 use it

http://www.google.com/search?q=A+13-year-old+German+schoolboy+corrected+NASA%27s+estimates&ie=ut
f-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a
>> Anonymous
>>592966

Hmm....I'm going to reserve judgment for a NASA press release.
>> Anonymous
>>592974

I concur. It seems the web is just parotting what the German newspaper said. No independent confirmation.
>> Anonymous
>>592927
>basic acids

What has science done?!
>> Anonymous
eh. world won't be gone by 2100, much less 2036. even if this kid is right, 1 in 450 is still around .2%. i think i'll go with the other 99.8% on this one.

and if a 200 billion tonne asteroid can be deflected enough by a satellite 1/100th its size, that would be amazing. that would be like me running full speed and being pushed a significant distance by a very premature baby. like a 2.5 lb infant significantly adjusting a 250 lb man's trajectory.

just doesn't seem likely any way you cut it.
>> Anonymous
Murphy's law, bitches.

I'm kissing my ass goodbye in advance.
>> ? ?? User Unknown? !.64NeWFaGs
>>593106
this man sopeaks the trueth!
>> Anonymous
It just goes to show Germans > NASA
>> Anonymous
>>593111

Or how anyone with a basic understanding of math and physics > NASA.

NASA is the biggest fucking waste of tax dollars in the history of America.
>> Anonymous
>>593136
If that's the way you feel, then you must refrain from ever using another cell-phone for the rest of your life.

Also no sat tv, GPS, and such either
>> Anonymous
Who gives a fuck everyone one this planet will be dead in 120 years anyways. Every single god damn person.
>> Anonymous
>>593160
Wow, you're wise. You should head butt the wall right now, and go out and find the some isolated house and break in. - Steal their milk, and drown yourself in its white sweet goodness.

No? Why?
Everyone is going to die anyway.

Wimp.
>> Anonymous
>>593143
Those were the Air Force's doing you idiot.
>> Anonymous
Most 13 yearolds are smarter than most 21 yearolds.

They don't know as much but they learn shit faster and they crunch numbers a heck of a lot faster.
>> Anonymous
>>593212
Uh yeah. Maybe compared to you.
>> Anonymous
I'm stronger, faster, and smarter then most of you fags.

Prove me wrong!

/classic trolling
>> Anonymous
most 13 year olds crunch number faster than 21 year olds? Maybe because your average 13 year old is still regularly taking math classes and your average 21 year old is mixing concrete because he realised freeloading off his fat benefit claiming mother was easier than getting a real job.

Also can we please be more gullible to stupid fucking stories the internet throws at us like the time i heard that 96 year old grandma saved a child from underneath a car because adrenaline kicked in... The kid probably was talking about this to some librarian who is in fact 54 and a theoretical physicist in his study hours and the kid had a discussion about this when the man pointed this out to the kid making the kid take all the credit for newspaper and publicity reasons.

Also im stronger, more handsome, more successful, more rich and more liked than all of you
>> Anonymous
Intelligence peaks around age 11.
>> Anonymous
Who cares, we wont be around after 2012 anyway.
>> sage
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis

>>In April 2008 it was widely but incorrectly reported that 13 year-old Nico Marquardt from Potsdam, Germany, had recalculated the odds as part of a science competition, and found the risk had been underestimated. Taking into account the possibility of the asteroid colliding with one or more of the estimated 40,000 artificial satellites orbiting the earth, possibly causing a shift in its orbit, increases the probability of a collision with [5] earth on its next fly-by in 2036 to 1 in 450. NASA was reported as confirming these results with the ESA[6], yet they have since apparently denied these claims, and on April 15, 2008 it was reported Nico Marquardt's calculations were incorrect.[7]
>> The Unfulfiller !!nA1z0Vw5MLi
Looks like there's job to be done...

TO THE UNFULCAVE!
>> Anonymous
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

That's NASA's asteroid risk website. It's updated constantly. There has been no change to the odds of Apophis hitting.

The story is just pure sensationalist dribble that the entire web parroted. It's no surprise that the anti-intellectual crowd here chomped at the bit.
>> Delibird !XbJTla5niA
>>593354
An actual cave or is that just the name for your basement? Oh, snap! No I di'int!
>> Anonymous
>>593438

Aw. your going and proving that someone didn't better NASA took the fun out of poking fun at them just because no one here took math above the 100 level.

WE NEED SCIENCE STUFF TO MAKE FUN OF BECAUSE WE CAN'T UNDERSTAND THE RIGORS OF THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD OR IT TELLS US OUR MAKE-BELIEVE IS JUST THAT--MAKE-BELIEVE!
>> Anonymous
>>593313
>>Intelligence peaks around age 11.
That's why so many people achieved scientific success at that age. Oh wait, no, they played Pokemon and ate Cheetos.

>>593457
Well fuck you, you're probably an underage faggot as well.
>> Anonymous
>>592951

>>blogosphere

Fucking idiot expression.
>> Anonymous
Guys it has to be real I read it on SLASHDOT!!!
>> Anonymous
>>593099
lol'd
>> Anonymous
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_deflection_strategies#Kinetic_Impact
nuff said
>> Anonymous
     File :-(, x)
>>593106

Don't you mean MARTIAN law? This law gives me the right to find this asteroid's ass, then beat it.
>> Anonymous
lolgermany

why do we still listen to them after WWI and WWII

It should have become America Jr. along with Japan
>> Anonymous
I see no reason why people couldn't make a mistake calculating something just because they work for NASA.
I see no reason why a person couldn't calculate something just because he is thirteen years old.

Just because he is thirteen doesn't mean he can't do maths.

But in the end, it doesn't really matter if it's 1 in 45000 or 1 in 450, if the undesirable outcome cannot be changed or avoided.
>> Anonymous
>>593776

because 13 year olds lack object permanence and to them, 1 +1 = 1
>> Anonymous
Has anyone considered how fucking complicated it is to project an asteroids path? No? Okay. A 13 year old couldn't do it.

No. They couldn't.
>> Anonymous
http://www.switched.com/2008/04/16/german-schoolboy-who-corrected-nasa-is-wrong-says-nasa-esa/
>> Anonymous
>>593795
Mood swings don't stop people from thinking, it just makes it slightly more difficult to concentrate. As for the latter part, mathematics is an exact science; it doesn't matter how maturely or logically someone acts in everyday situations, they can do maths.

The claim that someone can't do maths because of their age is an argumentum ad hominem, a fallacy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem
>> Anonymous
nasa has so much trash in space i bet if we try to launch off earth we will get wtfowned by the space debris from nasa.
>> Captain Cactus and the Water Preservation Squad !ZXjpjcfUbc
     File :-(, x)
>>593326
>>593804
>> Anonymous
>>593828
Yay, it's the great SCP writer! I could never forget that name.
>> Anonymous
The kid is full of shit. He doesn't know how to calculate probabilities and even less how to calculate trajectories.
>> Anonymous
>>593800
Yes, I agree. You people aren't understanding. Tell me exactly what things you need to tell us what asteroid is going to hit us 30 years from now. Because from what I know, 13 year olds don't have the billion dollar machines that you need to do that.
>> Anonymous
>>593438
>Palermo Scale (cum.)
/thread
>> Anonymous
>>593845
I need a God damn genious, or a team of somewhat intelligent people and bunch of computers.

You are not remembering that those billion-dollar machines were designed by people. Technically, a human can do all the calculations a machine can do.
>> Anonymous
>>592890

Wait a minute, that's just fixing the zeroes.

That's not even a science or a math problem, it's just being retarded with entering numbers in a calculator.
>> Anonymous
>>593862
Because a 13 year old has the same knowledge as a bunch of Azns with 30 years of experience.
>> Anonymous
You're all a bunch of fucking idiots to believe this.
Link: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/
Schoolboy's asteroid-strike sums are wrong
German kid saw 1 in 450 chance of Apophis apocalypse
By Lewis Page ? More by this author
Published Wednesday 16th April 2008 11:06 GMT

Widespread media reports claim that a German schoolboy has recalculated the likelihood of a deadly planet-smasher asteroid hitting the Earth, and found the catastrophe is enormously more likely than NASA thought. The boy's sums were said to have been checked by both NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA), and found to be correct.

There's only one problem with the story: the kid's sums are in fact wrong, NASA's are right, and the ESA swear blind they never said any different. An ESA spokesman in Germany told the Reg this morning: "A small boy did do these calculations, but he made a mistake...
>NASA's figures are correct."
Cont'd next post
>> Anonymous
>>593876
It would appear that the intial article in the Potsdamer Neueste Nachrichten, which says that NASA and the ESA endorsed Nico Marquardt's calculations, was incorrect. The story was picked up by German tabloids and the AFP news wire, and is now all over the internet.

Marquardt apparently reckoned that the odds of the well-known Apophis asteroid hitting Earth were not one in 45,000 as assessed by NASA, but rather one in 450. Apophis will pass close by Earth in 2029 and 2036, so close that it will come nearer than satellites in geostationary orbit.

It seems that Marquardt's calculations included the possibility of collision with a satellite in some way not thought to have been covered by NASA, which bumped up the odds of a subsequent Earth strike. But NASA says:

[The asteroid will pass] within the distance of Earth's geosynchronous satellites. However, because Apophis will pass interior to the positions of these satellites at closest approach, in a plane inclined at 40 degrees to the Earth's equator and passing outside the equatorial geosynchronous zone when crossing the equatorial plane, it does not threaten the satellites in that heavily populated region.

>All in all, it seems there's no need to dust off the asteroid-busting space nukes just yet.

Here's the link again:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/
>> Anonymous
>>593869
Apparently not. I am still not going to go and deny the possibility that someone can have.
>> Anonymous
>>593879
must be embarrassing for the kid.
>> Anonymous
>>593883
Could happen to anyone. Didn't you ever check the examples in your schoolbooks back in the day? Every now and then I did, and I can assure you, they weren't always correct.

This kid did the calculations for some school project, came to a different result than NASA and wanted to know for sure who was wrong. Of course, it's better with him being, but I find it a good thing that not everybody takes everything at face value.

Claiming that the calculations are right because some people at NASA did them is also a fallacy, argumentum ad verecundiam.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_authority
>> Anonymous
The point of this article is not that the boy is 13, it's that coincidentally a 13 year old boy was correct and NASA agreed with him. Take the kid out of the picture and it's just "NASA revises calculations", the kind of news the media never picks up. The 13 year old and his school project is irrelevant, it's just the spice in this story.

German boys are cute though.

(Not a faggot btw)
>> Anonymous
>>593902
Dude, it's okay, I spend a lot of time in /cm/ too.
>> Anonymous
>>592890
>1 in 450

im happy with those odds.
fuck you
>> Anonymous
>>593900
>>593902

But he wasn't right. It was just a tabloid article written by a known sensationalist. NASA has not revised their numbers. They are here to be seen by all: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

A 13 year old using a telescope could conceivably plot the course of an asteroids orbit (it even says he had help) but where the article diverges from reality is where it says that the asteroid will hit "a satellite" and that it would make the odds change to EXACTLY 1:450. Seeing as how all satellites vary in mass and orbital velocity, the fact that he says "a satellite" and not a specific satellite with a specific given mass and trajectory, there is simply no way he could have gotten a supposedly exact number of 1:450.

On a side note, you all need to go back to college. Being an Autodidact is not a substitute for an education. You people don't know shit, and the fact that this article fooled anyone is indicative of that.
>> Anonymous
>>593920
Not revised, hopefully checked.
>> Anonymous
1/450 is a low probability. Its still very unlikely it will happen
>> Anonymous
>>592927
lol, basic acids.
>> Anonymous
Even if it does hit, is it big enough to destroy all life on Earth?
>> Anonymous
I'll be in my late fiftees by then. No matter.
>> Anonymous
NASA press release: http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/apr/HQ_08103_student_asteroid_calculations.html

>WASHINGTON -- The Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., has not changed its current estimates for the very low probability (1 in 45,000) of an Earth impact by the asteroid Apophis in 2036.

>Contrary to recent press reports, NASA offices involved in near-Earth object research were not contacted and have had no correspondence with a young German student, who claims the Apophis impact probability is far higher than the current estimate.

>This student's conclusion reportedly is based on the possibility of a collision with an artificial satellite during the asteroid's close approach in April 2029. However, the asteroid will not pass near the main belt of geosynchronous satellites in 2029, and the chance of a collision with a satellite is exceedingly remote.

>Therefore, consideration of this satellite collision scenario does not affect the current impact probability estimate for Apophis, which remains at 1 in 45,000.

Oh /x/, how many times must your ignorance of science bite you on the ass before you pull your shamble of a life together and go back to college to actually learn something about the true, material universe.
>> Anonymous
Don't be a dick. We have nuclear missiles to blow the meteors and flying saucers of the DOOOM!!!!!'11
>> Anonymous
>>593143
You forgot, he need to shut his computer down like right now, never use anything that has a computer chip or LCD screen again in his entire life.
>> Jeb
I'll be on mars by then.
>> Anonymous
>>593136

That's because NASA and their "fledgling" space program is just a diversional cover up, so that people don't learn about the true space program. The one we got from the aliens and we can now just teleport to other planets and stuff.